Do Aliens Exist?

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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby MikeJamieson » Wed Jul 15, 2009 5:35 pm

Okay, here's the followup on George. While strongly disavowing the creationist pov, he identifies with the ID point of view. (And, argues Einstein held that perspective also.) Anyway, he simply says that he has seen no evidence come to light of ETs existing.

Longhaircowboy raises another avenue of contemplation or consideration: would a Type 111 civilization be xenophobic? Fascinating question. Another corollary: would the human species, if arriving at type 111 capacity and culture, be xenophobic or would we have been so affected by the "osmosis" of the sci fi culture that we would naturally want to journey "where no man has gone before"?
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby ryguy » Wed Jul 15, 2009 7:29 pm

MikeJamieson wrote:Another corollary: would the human species, if arriving at type 111 capacity and culture, be xenophobic or would we have been so affected by the "osmosis" of the sci fi culture that we would naturally want to journey "where no man has gone before"?


If Earth's own history is any indication of humanity's tendencies...we would not only go where no man has gone before. We would also slaughter the natives, convert the surviving population to our own religious beliefs, and then claim the new planet as our own. :)

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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Wed Jul 15, 2009 9:41 pm

MikeJamieson wrote:Another corollary: would the human species, if arriving at type 111 capacity and culture, be xenophobic or would we have been so affected by the "osmosis" of the sci fi culture that we would naturally want to journey "where no man has gone before"?

While ryguys post certainly covers our current just barely type I(actually type 0) civilization well, we must consider whats involved in the Kardashev scale of levels of advanced civilizations. These are based on the amount of usable energy a civilization has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonization. In general terms, a Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II of its solar system, and Type III of its galaxy.
I think a type III might veer toward xenophobia because they may deem the power to control whole galaxies as proprietary information not to be known to the lesser types. And this follows along the idea that we mere type I folks would indeed be very dangerous with this knowledge. I mean look what we do with what we already know.
It will be a long time before we reach type III if ever.
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby MikeJamieson » Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:45 pm

longhaircowboy wrote:I think a type III might veer toward xenophobia because they may deem the power to control whole galaxies as proprietary information not to be known to the lesser types. And this follows along the idea that we mere type I folks would indeed be very dangerous with this knowledge. I mean look what we do with what we already know.
It will be a long time before we reach type III if ever.


Still, a visiting Type 111 civilization is even possible with the concern you mention them likely having. They just would be pretty much covert and "invisible" to us. (And, also NOT likely to be constructing their "recon" craft---or whatever----out of the fancy mylar and balsa wood that Dr. Marcel and other Roswell witnesses describe.)


[Mod Edit: trimmed quote]
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Thu Jul 16, 2009 9:49 pm

Well your quite right about that. But what if our visitors were type I or II? Having not reached true type I status(we've yet to colonize space to any degree) how can we be sure we understand the motives of any more advanced civilization. I don't think its possible for us to comprehend actually reaching out to another civilization since we don't posess that ability ourselves. We can only make educated guesses.
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby Access Denied » Thu Jul 23, 2009 8:45 am

ATTENTION: The following is required reading…

Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?
http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.3432
Milan M. Cirkovic
Serbian Astronomical Journal, vol. 178, pp. 1-20 (2009)

ABSTRACT:

We review Fermi's paradox (or the "Great Silence" problem), not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI), but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already a more than three quarters of a century old puzzle - and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin - Fermi's paradox has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built into various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neo)catastrophic hypotheses gives, on balance, the strongest justification for guarded optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

DISCLAIMER: This is the "latest greatest" peer reviewed attempt to resolve the seemingly paradoxical question of “Where is everybody?” based on the most recent advancements in science and as such, some may be violently opposed to many of the arguments presented while others may be encouraged to open their mind to the possibilities… “disturbing” or not.

You have been forewarned… 8)

Thoughts?

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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Sat Jul 25, 2009 8:23 pm

They certainly cover all the bases regarding Fermis paradox. I covered some of those myself in my article. One thing stood out in the beginning of their piece.
It is enough for our purposes to contend that this timescale is well-defined, albeit not
precisely known due to our ignorance regarding the possibilities and modes of interstellar travel.

And therein lies a gaping hole IMHO. Without any conceivable idea of how or how long it would take for an ETC to make a journey here the timescale is not well-defined it is loosely defined.
The question Fermi posed "If they are out there, why aren't they here?" presupposes that they would even want to be here in the first place. To which I propose lhc's paradox, if they are out there, why would they want to be here?
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby Access Denied » Sun Jul 26, 2009 10:06 pm

longhaircowboy wrote:And therein lies a gaping hole IMHO. Without any conceivable idea of how or how long it would take for an ETC to make a journey here the timescale is not well-defined it is loosely defined.

I think you may have misunderstood the argument there... the point is the minimum time required is more or less well-defined for the purposes of establishing the apparent paradox.

The secret is we’ve had the “means to travel among the stars” for over 50 years now...

We can set the lower limit at around 0.1c (less than 50 years to the nearest star Proxima Centauri) using nuclear pulse propulsion for example.

The truth is we just don’t have the will...

Sure, it would consume most of our resources for say the next 50 years or so to engineer a generational ship but the point is, we already have the technology and in the larger scheme of things, a 100 years to go from dream to reality is incredibly insignificant.

Now, let’s say that’s too optimistic socially, politically and economically (pretty likely, in fact that’s one of the proposed solutions to the paradox) and it will take a 1,000 years from now before we head out to the “final frontier”... or 10,000 or Hell, even 1 million years! Does it really make any difference? Not on the time scales we’re talking about.

Theoretically speaking, at "only" 10% of light speed any civilization that did have the will has arguably had more than enough time to colonize the entire Galaxy by now...

No hypothetical FTL capability or “Type II” civilization required... that would just make the paradox even more apparent.

The question Fermi posed "If they are out there, why aren't they here?" presupposes that they would even want to be here in the first place. To which I propose lhc's paradox, if they are out there, why would they want to be here?

Actually, the paradox isn’t so much “Why aren’t they here?”... it’s “Where is everybody?” So far no evidence anywhere of ET civilizations has been detected when arguably it should be...

I agree with the LHC Paradox though... it arguably doesn’t matter whether intelligent life is pervasive in the Universe or it isn’t... either way, for all practical purposes, it appears we’re on our own.

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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:20 pm

Actually Michio Kaku said it best as I pointed out in the article-
But a Type III civilization would likely not be inclined to visit us or conquer us, as in the movie Independence Day, where such a civilization spreads like a plague of locusts, swarming around planets to suck their resources dry. In reality, there are countless dead planets in outer space with vast mineral wealth they could harvest without the nuisance of coping with a restive native population. Their attitude toward us might resemble our own attitude toward an ant hill. Our inclination is not to bend down and offer the ants beads and trinkets, but simply to ignore them.

So what would the point of them coming here or even contacting us be. To a race more advanced than we(able to travel the distances involved)what would be the benefit? I think until we can suss that one out we are as you say on our own.
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby Access Denied » Tue Jul 28, 2009 7:37 am

longhaircowboy wrote:Actually Michio Kaku said it best…

I disagree… anthropocentric thinking at it’s worst. Be aware that in the context of his books and appearances, Kaku is an entertainer… paid to tell people what they want to hear, not what they don’t.

longhaircowboy wrote:So what would the point of them coming here or even contacting us be. To a race more advanced than we(able to travel the distances involved)what would be the benefit?

That’s easy… megatons of biomass for making ethanol to power their eco-friendly spaceship or moonshine to quench the thirst of hordes of alcoholic aliens in an era of intergalactic prohibition. Have you seen the way they fly around here crashing all the time?

Seriously, we can’t assume anything about extraterrestrial intelligence… science is based on observation and so far we only have one data point.

It’s fun to speculate though…
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:30 pm

Access Denied wrote:
That’s easy… megatons of biomass for making ethanol to power their eco-friendly spaceship or moonshine to quench the thirst of hordes of alcoholic aliens in an era of intergalactic prohibition. Have you seen the way they fly around here crashing all the time?

Your probably not far off on that guess. ET does seem to drive like the drunken early birds here in paradise. You see how they seemed to be unable to avoid the trees around Meiers place? Hopefully once we hit the intergalactic highway they space fuzz will have cleaned up the place.
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Fri Jul 31, 2009 9:56 pm

Here's a little tidbit I thought I'd throw into the debate. I'm reading a book by John Horgan titled The End of Science(1996) and I just came across an interesting quote. He quotes physicist Edward Witten(whom he calls a naive ironic scientist), "Generally speaking, all the great ideas of physics were really spin-offs of string theory. Some of them were discovered first, but I consider that a mere accident of the development on planet Earth. On planet earth, they were discovered in this order- general relativity, quantum field theory, super strings, super symmetry. But I don't believe if there are many civilizations in the universe, that those four ideas were discovered in that order in each civilization. I do believe, by the way, that those four ideas were discovered in any advanced civilization."
Interesting take on the development of other races.
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby Access Denied » Tue Aug 04, 2009 5:28 am

Suprising choice of reading material… :shock:

If aliens “discovered” string “theory” before anything else, they’re probably not going anywhere anytime soon…

Unstrung
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/1 ... at_atlarge

“It is the worst of times in physics. For more than a generation, physicists have been chasing a will-o’-the-wisp called string theory. The beginning of this chase marked the end of what had been three-quarters of a century of progress. Dozens of string-theory conferences have been held, hundreds of new Ph.D.s have been minted, and thousands of papers have been written. Yet, for all this activity, not a single new testable prediction has been made, not a single theoretical puzzle has been solved. In fact, there is no theory so far—just a set of hunches and calculations suggesting that a theory might exist. And, even if it does, this theory will come in such a bewildering number of versions that it will be of no practical use: a Theory of Nothing. Yet the physics establishment promotes string theory with irrational fervor, ruthlessly weeding dissenting physicists from the profession. Meanwhile, physics is stuck in a paradigm doomed to barrenness.”

That might explain the apparent paradox. :)

Personally, I’m not convinced a Theory of Everything is possible… or even necessary.

That’s not to say I believe we’ve literally reached "The End of Science” though. I see plenty of potential for new discoveries to be made in the fields of applied science far into the foreseeable future…

It’s just that it’s become more and more apparent the TOE is TANSTAAFL :(

“To a scientist, TANSTAAFL means that the system is ultimately closed — there is no magic source of matter, energy, light, or indeed lunch, that will not be eventually exhausted.”
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Re: Do Aliens Exist?

Postby longhaircowboy » Wed Aug 05, 2009 2:10 am

Access Denied wrote:
Suprising choice of reading material…
Not really if you've paid attention to my posts and blog entries. I'm a big printed word fan and I'd rather spend time flipping pages than prowling the web. Check some of my references and you'll see that I mention quite a variety of reading material. This just happened to be a book I grabbed to while away some time while I wait for Ryan to post my article on reverse engineering and prepare for my next one. I came upon that quote of Witten and felt it had some relevance to the alien exist debate since he seems to imply that if the civilization is at least as advanced as we are they should have made similar discoveries. BTW Horgan defines an naive ironic scientist as like a Texan- he thinks any one other than texans has an accent. To which I ask- heard of Einstiens EPR experiment or Bohms Implicate Order?
The next book I'm reading is Buzz Aldrins Men From Earth. Guess what my next articles about?
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