Just before the Deluge

Everything Political

Just before the Deluge

Postby wetsystems » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:48 am

A few minutes after noon, some of the more alert members of a crowd which had collected on the street outside the Stock Exchange, expecting they knew not what, recognized Charles E. Mitchell, erstwhile defender of the bull market, slipping quietly into the offices of J. P. Morgan & Company on the opposite corner. It was scarcely more than nine years since the House of Morgan had been pitted with the shrapnel-fire of the Wall Street explosion; now its occupants faced a different sort of calamity equally near at hand. Mr. Mitchell was followed shortly by Albert H. Wiggin, head of the Chase National Bank, William Potter, head of the Guaranty Trust Company; and Seward Prosser, head of the Bankers Trust Company. They had come to confer with Thomas W. Lamont of the Morgan firm. In the space of a few minutes these five men, with George F. Baker, Jr., of the First National Bank, agreed in behalf of their respective institutions to put up forty millions apiece to shore up the stock market. The object of the two-hundred-and-forty-million-dollar pool thus formed, as explained subsequently by Mr. Lamont, was not to hold prices at any given level, but simply to make such purchases as were necessary to keep trading on an orderly basis. Their first action, they decided, would be to try to steady the prices of the leading securities which served as bellwethers for the list as a whole. It was a dangerous plan, for with hysteria spreading there was no telling what sort of debacle might be impending. But this was no time for any action but the boldest.

The bankers separated. Mr. Lamont faced a gathering of reporters in the Morgan offices. His face was grave, but his words were soothing. His first sentence alone was one of the most remarkable understatements of all time. "There has been a little distress selling on the Stock Exchange," said he, "and we have held a meeting of the heads of several financial institutions to discuss the situation. We have found that there are no houses in difficulty and reports from brokers indicate that margins are being maintained satisfactorily." He went on to explain that what had happened was due to a "technical condition of the market" rather than to any fundamental cause.



Sound familiar? The date: October 24th, 1929. D day minus 5. The source: "Only Yesterday" by Frederick Lewis Allen, 1931.

...to be continued
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain


Postby I.P.Freely » Mon Aug 13, 2007 2:53 pm

No Doubt History Repeats locked and loaded here and with 0 debt I,m ready for the show.
"You can either trust people or not. I choose to trust what people say and sometimes I get lied to. If I were to trust no one I would never hear the truth." - James (IPF) Martell
I.P.Freely
Clearly Discerns Reality
Clearly Discerns Reality
 
Posts: 611
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:48 pm

Postby wetsystems » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:20 pm

August 14, 2007: DOW down another 200
The gigantic edifice of prices was honeycombed with speculative credit and was now breaking under its own weight.

Fear, however, did not long delay its coming. As the price structure crumbled there was a sudden stampede to get out from under. By eleven o'clock traders on the floor of the Stock Exchange were in a wild scramble to "sell at the market." Long before the lagging ticker could tell what was happening, word had gone out by telephone and telegraph that the bottom was dropping out of things, and the selling orders redoubled in volume. The leading, stocks were going down two, three, and even five points between sales. Down, down, down.... Where were the bargain-hunters who were supposed to come to the rescue at times like this? Where were the investment trusts, which were expected to provide a cushion for the market by making new purchases at low prices? Where were the big operators who had declared that they were still bullish? ere were the powerful bankers who were supposed to be able at any moment to support prices? There seemed to be no support whatever. Down, down, down. The roar of voices which rose from the floor of the Exchange had become a roar of panic.


Only Yesterday, 1931

D minus 4, to be continued...
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain

Postby wetsystems » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:35 pm

August 15th. 'Stocks mixed' DOW down 170.

Things looked somewhat better on Friday and Saturday. Trading was still on an enormous scale, but prices for the most part held. At the very moment when the bankers' pool was cautiously disposing of as much as possible of the stock which it had accumulated on Thursday and was thus preparing for future emergencies, traders who had sold out higher up were coming back into the market again with new purchases, in the hope that the bottom had been reached. (Hadn't they often been told that "the time to buy is when things look blackest"?) The newspapers carried a very pretty series of reassuring statements from the occupants of the seats of the mighty; Herbert Hoover himself, in a White House statement, pointed out that "the fundamental business of the country, that is, production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis." But toward the close of Saturday's session prices began to slip again. And on Monday the rout was under way once more.


D minus 3, August 15th, 2007

HOLD YOUR BREATH, HERE IT COMES!
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain

Postby wetsystems » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:49 am

The S&P 500 dropped for a third day, losing 19.84, or 1.4 percent, to 1,406.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 167.45, or 1.3 percent, to 12,861.47, sending the 30-stock gauge below 13,000 for the first time since April. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 40.29, or 1.6 percent, to 2,458.83.

``Feels like we're on the edge of a panic to me,'' said Jeffrey Saut, who oversees $33.7 billion as chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida. ``In our business, psychology is everything and psychology has changed real quick on Wall Street.''
Bloomberg, 8/15/7

The losses registered on Monday were terrific--17 1/2 points for Steel, 47 1/2 for General Electric, 36 for Allied Chemical, 34 1/2 for Westinghouse, and so on down a long and dismal list. All Saturday afternoon and Saturday night and Sunday the brokers had been struggling to post their records and go over their customers' accounts and sent out calls for further margin, and another avalanche of forced selling resulted. The prices at which Mr. Whitney's purchases had steadied the leading stocks on Thursday were so readily broken through that it was immediately clear that the bankers' pool had made a strategic retreat. As a matter of fact, the brokers who represented the pool were having their hands full plugging up the "air-holes" in the list--in other words, buying stocks which were offered for sale without any bids at all in sight. Nothing more than this could have been accomplished, even if it could have been wisely attempted. Even six great banks could hardly stem the flow of liquidation from the entire United States. They could only guide it a little, check it momentarily here and there.

Once more the ticker dropped ridiculously far behind, the lights in the brokers' offices and the banks burned till dawn, and the telegraph companies distributed thousands of margin calls and requests for more collateral to back up loans at the banks. Bankers, brokers, clerks, messengers were almost at end of their strength; for days and nights they had been driving themselves to keep pace with the most terrific volume of business that had ever descended upon them. It did not seem as if they could stand it much longer. But the worst was still ahead. It came the next day, Tuesday, October 29th.

Only Yesterday

I have long believed that stock markets are the best barometer of the health, wealth and security of a nation. And today's stock market message is an unmistakable vote of confidence for the president.

Lawrance Kudlow 7/20/7

And consider the American Dream circa 1929. Compare- if you dare:
For the blood of the pioneers still ran in American veins; and if there was no longer something lost behind the ranges, still the habit of seeing visions persisted. What if bright hopes had been wrecked by the sordid disappointments of 1919, the collapse of Wilsonian idealism, the spread of political cynicism, the slow decay of religious certainty, and the debunking of love? In the Big Bull Market there was compensation. Still the American could spin wonderful dreams-of a romantic day when he would sell his Westinghouse common at a fabulous price and live in a great house and have a fleet of shining cars and loll at ease on the sands of Palm Beach. And when he looked toward the future of his country, he could envision an America set free-not from graft, nor from crime, nor from war, nor from control by Wall Street, nor from irreligion, nor from lust, for the utopias of an earlier day left him for the most part skeptical or indifferent; he envisioned an America set free from poverty and toil. He saw a magical order built on the new science and the new prosperity: roads swarming with millions upon millions of automobiles, airplanes darkening the skies, lines of high-tension wire carrying from hilltop to hilltop the power to give life to a thousand labor-saving machines, skyscrapers thrusting above one-time villages, vast cities rising in great geometrical masses of stone and concrete and roaring with perfectly mechanized traffic-and smartly dressed men and women spending, spending, spending with the money they had won by being far-sighted enough to foresee, way back in 1929, what was going to happen.

Frederick Lewis Allen, 1931

"Those who neglect the mistakes of the past, are condemned to repeat them."

George Santayana




D minus 2
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain

Postby Serpentime » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:59 am

As a Snake in a Tree, it is my perception that the Bull of Wall Street is a latter-day Golden Calf.

Worship the idol at your peril.

Creator warned you in The First Commandment...


Cheers,

Serp :)
"Life's fantasy... To be locked away, and still to think you're free."

-- Ronnie Dio
User avatar
Serpentime
Valued Contributor
 
Posts: 416
Joined: Wed May 17, 2006 6:38 pm
Location: The Tree of Knowledge

Postby wetsystems » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:05 am

Up 300 down 400 up 100...
look for the chaotic meanderings of a stilling top. then you'll know that the end is near.

the fly-buzz of entropy.


The deluge is at hand.
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain

Postby Access Denied » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:10 am

wetsystems wrote:The deluge is at hand.

On the other hand it's a great time to buy! :twisted:

You and Father Smith apparently have more in common than you realize.
Men go and come but Earth abides.
User avatar
Access Denied
1 of the RU3
 
Posts: 2740
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2007 7:32 am
Location: [redacted]

Postby I.P.Freely » Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:07 am

Access Denied wrote:
wetsystems wrote:The deluge is at hand.

On the other hand it's a great time to buy! :twisted:

You and Father Smith apparently have more in common than you realize.

be made
So do you plan on buying up some stock AD?
Toon is absolutely right though its a simple read of the history to see that we are almost exactly repeating 1929 and it looking like the same mistakes will be made again.
"You can either trust people or not. I choose to trust what people say and sometimes I get lied to. If I were to trust no one I would never hear the truth." - James (IPF) Martell
I.P.Freely
Clearly Discerns Reality
Clearly Discerns Reality
 
Posts: 611
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:48 pm

Postby wetsystems » Fri Aug 17, 2007 11:48 am

Access Denied wrote:
wetsystems wrote:The deluge is at hand.

On the other hand it's a great time to buy! :twisted:

You and Father Smith apparently have more in common than you realize.


Image

“It’s being referred to as the biggest global margin call in history,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. A flood of margin calls is typical in a market correction, he said, and “it can turn small declines into large declines. That’s why leverage is dangerous.”

And from this morning:

Compare this-
William Poole, president of the St Louis Fed, had said on Thursday that only a “calamity” would justify a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before the meeting. He played down the effect of market turmoil on economic growth, telling Bloomberg “no one has called up and said the sky is falling”.


to this from a few hours later-
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, declaring that increased economic uncertainty poses risks for U.S. business growth, announced Friday that it has approved a half-percentage point cut in its discount rate on loans to banks.
The action was the most dramatic effort yet by the central bank to restore calm to global financial markets which have been roiled in the past week by a widening credit crisis.


"Only a calamity..." --Apparently the sky is now falling.



D minus 1

"...a great time to buy."


From Only Yesterday:
Once more the ticker dropped ridiculously far behind, the lights in the brokers' offices and the banks burned till dawn, and the telegraph companies distributed thousands of margin calls and requests for more collateral to back up loans at the banks. Bankers, brokers, clerks, messengers were almost at end of their strength; for days and nights they had been driving themselves to keep pace with the most terrific volume of business that had ever descended upon them. It did not seem as if they could stand it much longer. But the worst was still ahead. It came the next day, Tuesday, October 29th.


And yes- Father Smith and I (both being Philosophy graduates) do in fact have a lot in common.
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain

Postby You Can Call Me Ray » Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:17 pm

Still waiting on Toon's deluge. D-1 and holding. Housing sales rebounded last month. Market up 142 today.

We may be on the verge of a watershed event: Toon may be wrong yet again.

Ray
The Universe is an Integrated System. Operational, Functional, and Physical.
User avatar
You Can Call Me Ray
Uncovers Reality
Uncovers Reality
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:49 pm
Location: Huntington Beach, CA, USA

Postby wetsystems » Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:23 pm

You Can Call Me Ray wrote:Still waiting on Toon's deluge. D-1 and holding. Housing sales rebounded last month. Market up 142 today.

We may be on the verge of a watershed event: Toon may be wrong yet again.

Ray


1 Thessalonians 5:3 For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them , as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

“However, no one knows the day or hour when these things will happen, not even the angels in heaven or the Son himself.* Only the Father knows. “When the Son of Man returns, it will be like it was in Noah’s day. In those days before the flood, the people were enjoying banquets and parties and weddings right up to the time Noah entered his boat. People didn’t realize what was going to happen until the flood came and swept them all away. That is the way it will be when the Son of Man comes.

(Matthew 25:36−39)
And I should remark that I am saving my insults for Toon for "just the right time" when I will strike at his soft, white underbelly for maximum damage and humiliation. Ray Hudson 2007
User avatar
wetsystems
Focused on Reality
Focused on Reality
 
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:19 pm
Location: uncertain

Postby murnut » Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:30 pm

Oh yeah..things are great :cry:
"The Conformers are hard to read. They are rocks."
User avatar
murnut
Clearly Discerns Reality
Clearly Discerns Reality
 
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2007 12:35 am

Postby I.P.Freely » Sat Apr 05, 2008 5:55 pm

You Can Call Me Ray wrote:Still waiting on Toon's deluge. D-1 and holding. Housing sales rebounded last month. Market up 142 today.

We may be on the verge of a watershed event: Toon may be wrong yet again.

Ray


well it sure is taking its time but i dont think housing will be rebounding any time soon now. payed 3.51 for gas thats was joyful.
"You can either trust people or not. I choose to trust what people say and sometimes I get lied to. If I were to trust no one I would never hear the truth." - James (IPF) Martell
I.P.Freely
Clearly Discerns Reality
Clearly Discerns Reality
 
Posts: 611
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:48 pm


Google

Return to Politics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests

cron