Study: Interstellar Travel Not Possible Before 2200

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Study: Interstellar Travel Not Possible Before 2200

Postby Buckwild » Thu Jan 13, 2011 11:57 pm

Hi folks,

Here is a recent paper put out by Marc G. Millis*, found on the great Sentient Developments blog, he says that humanity will not meet the energy requirements for an interstellar trip for at least another two centuries.

* : former head of NASA's Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Project and founder of the Tau Zero Foundation

Energy, incessant obsolescence, and the first interstellar missions
by Marc G. Millis

Projections for the earliest interstellar mission possibilities are calculated based on 27 years of data on historic energy trends, societal priorities, required mission energy, and the implications of the Incessant Obsolescence Postulate (Where newer probes pass prior probes). Two sample missions are considered: launching a minimal colony ship where destination is irrelevant, and sending a minimal probe to Alpha Centauri with a 75 year mission duration. The colony ship is assumed to have a mass of 10^7 kg, and the probe 10^4 kg. It is found that the earliest interstellar missions could not begin for roughly another 2 centuries, or 1 century at best. Even when considering only the kinetic energy of the vehicles without any regard for propellant, the colony ship cannot launch until around the year 2200, and the probe cannot launch until around 2500. Examination of the Incessant Obsolesce Postulate shows that it becomes irrelevant under several conditions.

Link : http://arxiv.org/abs/1101.1066


Enjoy :wink:

++
Buck
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Re: Study: Interstellar Travel Not Possible Before 2200

Postby Buckwild » Mon Mar 14, 2011 12:44 am

Hi folks,

I asked Gilgamesh, the father of the "Gilga-ark", what he thought about this publication,

He thinks that the estimates made for an interstellar probe are realistic but he compared Marc G. Millis's colony ship
to a life-boat, not the kind of spaceship you would want to leave the Earth with.

For those interested by this specific subject, I truely recommend you reading his blog : http://strangepaths.com/interstellar-ark/2007/02/14/en/

A recent article regarding space colonies came out on the Space Review, here it is and what Georges Dvorsky thinks about it :
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1792/1
http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/201 ... onies.html

Enjoy ! :wink:

Cheers,
Buck
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